I was expecting a pullback around the middle of December and we’ve gotten a small one. Or two, maybe. We had a big pullback on black Friday and on Tuesday of this week after the fed meeting where they hinted that they might take their foot of of the gas pedal sooner than planned. Damn inflation.
It seems like no one is that happy with how inflated the stock valuations have become. Even if you’re up, it feels artificial. It’s easy to say that a 10-15% pullback is coming. But still, even with the fear, there’s no other game in town so we’re all kinda stuck. Good luck if you want to leave the market for cash or bonds.
As a result, the market seems very brittle – it can keep going up and up but there’s no confidence in it and will sell on even the slightest hint of a drop – like they just did.
Except for Apple of course, who had a strong day when most others were down. It seems that the market may be excited about their Q4 earnings as well as the prospect for new products such as glasses. Or it could be just that Apple is catching up as result of their relative underperformance over past 6-12 months.
So maybe it’s not all doom & gloom, just boom & panic sell, boom & panic sell as the market keeps grinding higher. After all, what else are you going to do? No where to run.
What I was buying this month
You can see last month‘s newsletter for the list of crypto names & miners that was most of my buying this month. I’m still expecting good things for Bitcoin $BTC over the next 6 months or so. Jump to the end of this issue for more crypto news.
Beyond that, I have picked up a little more Zoom $ZM and Draftkings $DKNG as they are way down but I still like them. See ‘despair trading’ below.
Companies doing well with just so-so stock prices
All these companies have been performing well but their valuations have been compressed recently, bringing them back down to earth temporarily.
Cloudflare is difficult to time properly
$NET went from like 20 bucks to 200 bucks in a flash so it’s hard to get a firm sense of where their valuation will start to settle down. They have pulled back a lot recently though so it’s worth another look, especially if you have a long-time horizon and/or dollar cost average in.
Cloudflare’s Blistering Growth Continues
AMD is chasing Nvidia up
$NVDA is starting to feel a bit like Tesla’s stock. Sure they’re growing and doing well. But it feels like they are getting every possible benefit of the doubt when it comes to share price. AMD was also following them on the way up lately and has been a solid performer, even though it’s not as flashy as Nvidia.
AMD Follows In Nvidia’s Footsteps And Pushes Higher
SoFi is growing members 100% year over year
$SOFI popped after the last earnings report after showing strong growth as they continue the march towards becoming a personal finance super-app.
Incidentally, I was able to get a few shares in the Rivian $RIVN at IPO price in the SoFi app so that could draw in users as well. I’d never been able to do that via any of my other brokers in the past.
Unity sprints up 100% then pulls back a bit
$U had a hell of a year, especially the second half when they went from ~$96 on July 14 and broke $200 on November 17 before pulling back to a modest $170-ish recently.
Why Unity Software Chugged 19.8% Higher in October
They even acquired a movie special effects company. Will that make game graphics better or make movies more like video games? Or both?
$U Unity Acquires VFX Company Weta Digital
Either way, Netflix $NFLX may meet them in the middle.
Netflix is getting serious about games
Exercising is hard. So is competing with Youtube, apparently
I suppose time will tell, eventually, but right now it looks like I was very wrong about Peloton $PTON and Vimeo $VMEO. Both have gotten clobbered recently.
There still seems to be a disconnect between Peloton the company and the equipment itself. Of the users that I’ve spoken to, they all love their bikes and still use them. Yet the company seems to have difficulty managing demand & forecasting. This might be a long wait.
Peloton shares fall 25% as company posts wider-than-expected loss and slashes full-year outlook
Vimeo $VMEO has a decent value proposition in the market and video should continue to grow. Yet here we are, way down from their spin-off IPO price. Sad.
Why Vimeo Stock Plunged This Week
Time for some despair shopping
I saw a list of companies posted to Twitter multiple times and the tone was so negative that it felt like people were completely giving up on them. While that might be reasonable for some of the companies listed, despair can also mean that the market has overcorrected and there could be bargains.
Despair list of companies off all-time highs
From this list, I purchased some long-term calls on Lemonade $LMND, Draftkings $DKNG and Zoom $ZM.
Zoom, especially, is still a great product and not going anywhere anytime soon, despite the narrative of ‘pandemic over’.
Zoom $4b in annual recurring revenue
Electric vehicles were white-hot, for a while
For some reason, everyone in the market decided this past month to buy all of the EV stocks. Go figure.
Rivian IPO’s had massive hype – $RIVN has now settled back a bit
Crypto December
As cash continues to be a liability, more and more people are flocking to alternative assets such as crypto. While it’s highly volatile, it’s probably going to dominate in the future so you might as well stay up to speed. Here are some more of the interesting stories from the past month.
Going mainstream:
U.S. mayors are vying for the crypto community by accepting salary in bitcoin
TIME Magazine to Hold ETH on Balance Sheet as Part of Galaxy Digital Metaverse Deal
Solana $SOL going social:
Reddit Co-Founder And Solana Ventures Invest $100M To Build Social Media On Solana
Bitcoin miner earnings:
$HUT nearly ~10x’d their revenue and ~2.5x’d their bitcoin mining year over year. Things are looking strong for this green-tech miner.
Hut 8 Mining Shares Pop On Solid Q3 Results, Surpasses Bitcoin Reserve Goal
$MARA had strong earnings but then fell from $70’s to $50’s after an SEC subpoena was issued. The sudden drop may have been exacerbated by just how quickly it had traded up to $70 before this.
Why Marathon Digital Holdings Stock Rose More Than 12% Today
Marathon Receives SEC Subpoena Related to 2020 Hardin Data Center Agreement; Shares Tumble
$ARBK is a London-based miner that’s opening a huge facility in Texas.
Argo Blockchain’s Texas Bitcoin Mining Farm To Be A $2B Powerhouse
That’s all I have for this month. I hope your portfolio lasts through the winter months.
-B
Disclaimer
Photo by Aubree Herrick on Unsplash